As global oil prices face fluctuations and domestic economic pressures mount, Pakistan is expected to witness minor changes in petroleum prices starting June 1, according to industrial and official sources.
The latest projections suggest that petrol prices may decrease by Rs0.60 per litre, while high-speed diesel (HSD) could drop by Rs0.28 per litre. However, there remains a strong possibility that petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) prices may remain unchanged, pending final input from the Finance Ministry.
While the marginal relief in petrol and diesel rates may bring some ease to consumers, prices for other fuels are expected to rise. The price of kerosene oil may increase by Rs0.30 per litre, moving up to Rs164.96 per litre from the current Rs164.64. In addition, light diesel oil (LDO) could see a more significant increase of Rs1.30 per litre.
Global Oil Market Influence
The international crude oil market continues to play a pivotal role in determining domestic fuel prices. Over the past week, Brent crude oil has traded between $64.02 and $64.60 per barrel, reflecting market uncertainty. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell over 1.5%, trading below $61 per barrel, following reports that OPEC+ is considering an output hike at an upcoming meeting.
This potential production increase comes as economic data from the U.S. shows a contraction, raising concerns about global demand. Earlier, crude oil prices had experienced a brief rally—up to 2%—after a U.S. trade court blocked several of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs, including those affecting Chinese imports. As China remains the world’s largest crude importer, the decision briefly buoyed market optimism.
Outlook
While the final decision on Pakistan’s fuel prices will hinge on input from the Finance Ministry and other macroeconomic factors, current trends suggest a cautious approach. The minor expected reductions may be offset by increases in kerosene and LDO, resulting in a mixed impact on consumers.
As the global oil landscape remains volatile, monitoring international trends and OPEC+ decisions will be critical in shaping Pakistan’s fuel pricing strategy in the coming months.
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